On the one hand, that's an increase from the 2.3% projection the group put out earlier in the year. On the other hand, a 2.4% COLA may be upsetting on several levels. Not only would 2.4% be smaller than the 2.5% COLA Social Security beneficiaries received at the start of 2025, but it would also be the smallest COLA to arrive since 2021.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has predicted that Social Security's 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 2.5 percent, up from April's prediction of 2.4 percent. While May's prediction is slightly up from March's 2.

Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is expected to be 2.5%, analysts said Wednesday, the same increase as this year, as consumer prices inched slightly higher in May but did not yet reflect the full impact of tariffs.